The U.S. Navy is struggling to meet its submarine production goals, raising concerns about its ability to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS agreement.

Rear Admiral Jon Rucker, head of the Navy’s attack submarine program, confirmed production rates are falling short due to material shortages, workforce challenges, and an overstretched industrial base.

The Navy’s plan to produce one Columbia-class and two Virginia-class submarines annually by 2028 remains at risk. Current production rates are only 1.1 to 1.2 submarines per year, far below the target of 1.5 for 2024. Delays in the Virginia-class program have pushed timelines back by 2-3 years, with cost overruns exceeding $17 billion.

The AUKUS pact requires the U.S. to provide three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. Despite these challenges, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed confidence that the U.S. will meet its commitments, citing efforts to strengthen the industrial base. However, critics warn that domestic needs may take priority, potentially impacting AUKUS delivery timelines.