Russia’s military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean faces significant challenges following the collapse of its ally, the Assad regime in Syria. 

According to a UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) report released on January 21, Russia’s former Syrian ally Permanent Mediterranean Task Group (PMTG) has lost access to the Tartus naval base, a key facility for maintenance and logistical support. 

The Tartus base has been central to Russia’s ability to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. According to the MOD’s report, the loss of Tartus disrupts Russia’s ability to support both its military and private contractors operating in Africa.

Latest Defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 January 2025.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/l0m9NuFAJg #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/cE0Te2a5yO

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 21, 2025

The report also states that Russia’s prioritization of the Ukraine conflict weakened its capacity to keep the Assad regime in power, contributing to its collapse. 

Additionally, it notes that while Russia is likely seeking to retain its presence in the Mediterranean, no clear plans have emerged for relocating forces or establishing alternative bases. The possibility of moving assets to North Africa has been flagged, but there is no evidence of concrete steps toward this goal.

Earlier reports from naval analysts suggested that Russia might be planning to relocate its Tartus base to eastern Libya, possibly to Tobruk or Benghazi.