Russia could be capable of launching a full-scale war against NATO within the next five years if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches a frozen state, according to a newly released report from Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS).
The report states that Moscow is rebuilding its military capabilities at an accelerated pace through material and financial aid from China, North Korea, and Iran and the country could become more willing to engage in a large-scale conflict with European NATO members if it perceives the alliance as weak.
“Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,” the report states. “This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia.”
Denmark’s intelligence agency outlined three potential timelines for Russian military aggression depending on the status of the war in Ukraine.
If the conflict in Ukraine ceases, Russia could be capable of launching a localized war with a bordering country within six months, a regional war in the Baltic within two years, and a large-scale war against Europe within five years—particularly if the United States does not intervene.
The agency emphasized that these projections do not take into account any NATO military build-up that could occur in response.
President Donald Trump previously urged NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—more than double the current 2% target—warning that the U.S. could withdraw from the alliance if they fail to comply. He also stated that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members that do not meet their obligations.
The DDIS report comes as the United States pushes to end the war in Ukraine. Earlier this week, Trump announced that negotiations to end the war would begin immediately, with Russian President Vladimir Putin agreeing to closely cooperate with the U.S. in the talks.
