Russia is building military infrastructure along its borders with NATO member states that could ultimately accommodate up to 115,000 troops, according to a joint investigation by Scandinavian and Baltic media outlets based on satellite imagery and interviews with senior military officials.

The investigation, conducted by Sweden’s SVT, Norway’s NRK, Denmark’s DR and Estonia’s Delfi, identified construction projects near the borders of Norway, Finland and the Baltic states, as well as in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea.

Among the most significant developments is the expansion of the Petsamo military base, located about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Norwegian border. The base’s capacity is expected to increase from roughly 7,000 personnel to 17,000, according to the report.

Satellite imagery reviewed by the investigators showed new barracks, ammunition storage facilities, equipment concentrations and expanded military perimeters at several sites, including Petsamo, Petrozavodsk, Sapyorny, Luga and Baltiysk.

Military and intelligence officials in Northern Europe said the buildup could be part of a longer-term effort to strengthen Russia’s military posture against NATO.

“This is a threat we should take seriously. We don’t think all of this is just for demonstration. This is about preparing capabilities for confrontation with NATO in a major conflict sometime later,” said Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence service.

Former Finnish intelligence officer Marko Eklund told Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi that Russia could deploy up to 115,000 troops to its northern European frontier after the war in Ukraine ends, with many of those forces likely to have combat experience gained during the conflict.

“While Russia is occupied with Ukraine, the immediate military threat is low. But this could change quickly if there is a pause in Ukraine,” said Maj. Gen. Bryan Nilssen, NATO commander responsible for the Baltic states and Poland.

Norwegian Army Commander Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen expressed similar concerns.

“If Russia is now building up forces to the volumes they have announced, and the footage shows that they are doing this, the military threat to Norway will grow,” Kristoffersen said.

The findings come as European leaders and military officials continue to evaluate Russia’s long-term military intentions toward NATO.

Concerns about a potential future conflict with Russia have been repeatedly raised within the alliance. 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned allies against underestimating what he describes as a growing threat from Moscow and has called for increased defense spending across NATO. He has cautioned that failure to strengthen European defenses could leave the continent exposed in the coming years.

Russia has consistently denied any intention of attacking NATO members. President Vladimir Putin has rejected warnings of a Russian threat, arguing that such claims are used by political leaders to alarm their populations and divert attention from domestic issues.