Four years after the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a coup on February 1, 2021, Myanmar remains in a deep crisis. Rebel groups, including ethnic armed forces and civilian-led militias, have gained significant ground, raising doubts about the regime’s ability to maintain control.
According to a Radio Free Asia report, Myanmar’s junta forces now control less than half of the country, after suffering significant battlefield setbacks in 2024, including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states.
In June 2024, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies launched new offensives in Shan State. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured Lashio, a major commercial hub and home to the junta’s Northeast Regional Military Command.
This was the first time in over 50 years that an opposition force seized a regional military command. Other rebel groups also took control of several townships, leaving the junta with little remaining territory in Shan State.
In December, the Arakan Army captured another command center in Rakhine State and now controls most of that region.
A BBC study in late 2024 found that the military fully controls only 21% of the country, while opposition forces hold 42%, with the rest contested. According to the Myanmar Peace Monitor of Burma News International, ethnic armed groups and their allies have captured 86 towns across the country, as of December 23.
The military has responded to a series of defeats by enforcing a 2010 conscription law, requiring men aged 18-35 and single women aged 18-27 to serve. Authorities in Yangon have begun compiling lists of women for recruitment, including students. While the junta denies forcing women into service, residents report that unmarried women without children are being included on conscription lists.
Despite defeats, the State Administration Council, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, remains in power.
The junta plans to hold elections in 2025. However, with the military controlling only 161 out of 330 townships, opposition groups have dismissed the election as an effort to legitimize military rule.
Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, along with thousands of political opponents. The ongoing civil war has displaced 3.3 million people, killed more than 5,000 civilians, and led to mass arrests, according to the United Nations.
