A recent report of the Nagel Committee, an Israeli government commission, warned that Turkey could present a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” group in Damascus.

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkish-backed groups, including factions led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), have assumed control under a caretaker government. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has committed military and security support to these factions, raising fears in Israel about the potential emergence of a Sunni Islamist proxy force near its borders. 

The report underscores that some of these groups, whose leaders have links to extremist organizations such as al-Qaeda, could eventually pose a significant security challenge to Israel.

“It must be considered that Israel may face a new threat emerging from Syria, which in some respects could be just as severe as the previous one. This threat could take the form of an extreme Sunni force that would also refuse to recognize the very existence of Israel,” the committee said in the report. 

“Furthermore, since the Sunni rebels will hold political power through their central control in Syria, a greater threat may arise from them than from Iran, whose influence has been limited by Israel’s ongoing actions and the restrictions imposed by the sovereign Syrian state,” the committee added.

To address these threats, the committee recommended substantial increases to Israel’s defense budget, proposing an annual boost of NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) over the next five years. This funding would focus on securing advanced weaponry, enhancing air defense systems, and bolstering border security. 

The report also urged Israel to adopt a proactive strategy aimed at neutralizing emerging threats quickly and decisively.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the report’s findings, stating that while Iran has traditionally been Israel’s primary threat, new challenges are emerging that require Israel to prepare for the unexpected. 

The warnings come as Erdogan has vowed to prevent the fragmentation of Syria and pledged to intervene against any risks to Turkish security. Meanwhile, Israel continues military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.