Chinese researchers claim to have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) system capable of outmaneuvering human pilots in aerial dogfight simulations, a breakthrough that could significantly impact the future of air combat.
According to a study published in the December issue of the Journal of Gun Launch & Control, scientists from the Northwest Institute of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering in Xianyang, a research arm of Norinco, China’s largest arms supplier, have developed an AI-driven predictive modeling system that anticipates enemy maneuvers with unprecedented accuracy.
Unlike previous AI air combat systems that relied on trajectory-based predictions—struggling to counter sudden, nonlinear maneuvers—this new system utilizes advanced infrared imaging to detect minute deformations in an aircraft’s control surfaces. By analyzing changes in wing-tail movements, the AI can forecast an opponent’s next move before it is fully executed.
Researchers claim that the so-called Red Eye AI could make highly maneuverable fighter jets, such as the U.S.-made F-15, vulnerable to AI-guided attacks.
The system was tested in real-world scenarios against the highly complex aerial maneuvers of F-15s. According to South China Morning Post, one simulation involved an F-15 releasing munitions at a low altitude before executing a sharp ascent—a maneuver requiring precise coordination of control surfaces. In another, the jet performed rapid, erratic jinking and diving to evade incoming fire, marked by abrupt control-surface adjustments.
The report revealed that in both cases, the AI anticipated trajectory shifts within milliseconds of detecting control-surface movements, leaving no room for evasion.
In 2020, a U.S. Department of Defense simulation saw an AI system, developed by Heron Systems, defeat an F-16 pilot with 2,000 hours of experience in a scripted dogfight.
AI has become a key battleground in the ongoing competition between China and the U.S. The U.S. military has been integrating AI into its combat systems since at least 2017.
According to a 2024 report cited by the Time Magazine, U.S. government spending on AI has surged in recent years. The report found that the potential value of AI-related federal contracts soared nearly 1,200%, from $355 million in the period leading up to August 2022 to $4.6 billion by August 2023.
This growth was largely driven by the Department of Defense which increased its AI-related contract commitments from $190 million to $557 million over the same period.
