Tensions in the Caucasus region have escalated once more as Azerbaijan has reiterated its claim over several border areas it asserts fall within its internationally recognized borders, which are disputed by Armenia. Concurrently, Azerbaijan has made it clear that territories it took control of in 2022, claimed by Armenia, will not be returned, citing unacknowledged international boundaries. This stance by Azerbaijan presents a complex paradox, typically sufficient to provoke a declaration of war under ordinary circumstances. However, the current context is far from typical.

Armenia finds itself grappling with a deep-rooted crisis that has intensified in recent times. The administration under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has notably shifted its alliances, reducing its ties with its longstanding ally Russia, and instead, has sought closer relations with its historical adversary, Turkey. Simultaneously, Armenia has overlooked Iran as a potential regional ally. Despite these significant changes in its foreign relations, Armenia’s actions have done little to deter Azerbaijan’s territorial ambitions. Under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan is revisiting both new and historical claims against Armenia. This aggressive posture threatens to further destabilize an already frail Armenian state, potentially forcing it into a more dependent relationship with Turkey in the foreseeable future.

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