The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has recently indicated that it currently lacks a clear replacement for the F-22 Raptors, following announcements that the ‘Next Generation Air Dominance’ (NGAD) program, initially developed to replace the Raptors, is under reconsideration. This revelation comes amid budget constraints and strategic evaluations affecting the program’s future.
General Kenneth S. Wilsbach, head of Air Combat Command (ACC), stated at a recent Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies forum that the Air Force expects to select a contractor for its sixth-generation fighter jet later this year. Despite recent ambiguities from Air Force leadership regarding the NGAD program, Wilsbach affirmed the timeline for choosing a winning contractor, with Lockheed Martin and Boeing as the primary contenders.
The NGAD initiative, which includes an advanced piloted aircraft, drone wingmen, and cutting-edge engines, has faced scrutiny due to its high costs. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall noted in a June interview with Defense News that the program, while vital, must be affordable. He emphasized that NGAD is a comprehensive family of systems rather than a single jet.
General Wilsbach confirmed that, in the absence of a direct replacement, the Air Force would likely retain 32 Block 20 F-22 fighters. The aircraft, primarily used for training, have avoided upgrades in recent years but remain capable in emergency combat situations.
The budgetary pressures and evolving defense strategies have raised questions about NGAD’s feasibility. Secretary Kendall expressed the need for cost-effective solutions, hinting at potential redesigns to reduce expenses.
The Air Force’s uncertainty about NGAD coincides with a broader context of military modernization and defense readiness. The program’s anticipated high costs—three times that of an F-35—limit the potential fleet size. With the F-35 costing between $80 million to $100 million per unit, NGAD’s expense could restrict its deployment to small numbers.
Meanwhile, delays in NGAD technologies impact plans to retire older F-22 jets, specifically the Block 20 configuration. The Air Force has repeatedly sought to decommission these aircraft but has faced resistance from Congress and scrutiny from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), which criticized the insufficient justification for their retirement.
In parallel, the F-35 program also faces challenges. General Wilsbach addressed issues with the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade, essential for future enhancements. Software problems have halted new fighter deliveries, potentially leaving over 100 planes undelivered this year. The Pentagon is working to resolve these issues, aiming to resume deliveries soon, albeit initially for training purposes.
The F-35 also requires upgrades to its engine and cooling system. Decisions have been made to enhance the current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, but the cooling system, known as the Power and Thermal Management System (PTMS), remains under scrutiny. Options range from entirely new designs to upgrading the existing system, with cost and capability considerations influencing the final decision.
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