The battle of Mogadishu in 1993, which led to 18 American deaths, surprised many, including President Bill Clinton. However, Maj. Gen. David Meade of the Army, who was overseeing the largest US component of the peacekeeping force in the city, had anticipated such events. In a classified memo weeks before the battle, Meade had warned of Somalia’s unstable condition and recommended measures that could have potentially prevented the Black Hawk Down incident. Despite his clear foresight, his advice was not heeded, leading to the tragic events and a lasting impact on Somalia.
  

Key Points: 

1. Context: The US forces were in Somalia in support of a U.N. humanitarian mission, initially succeeding in ending a famine and saving lives.
2. Maj. Gen. David Meade’s Warning: Meade sent a classified memo to the Army chief of staff, warning of impending violence in Mogadishu, and urged for certain actions, including allowing troops to shoot any armed Somalis on sight.
3. Outcome and Impact: The unheeded warning led to a tragic battle in Mogadishu, commonly referred to as Black Hawk Down, where 18 American soldiers were killed, causing the eventual withdrawal of U.S. forces and U.N.’s efforts from Somalia.
4. Historical Significance: Despite the clear warning, it was ignored, and it represents one of the many instances in history where alerts from some experts were overshadowed by mainstream beliefs.
5. Aftermath: Following the incident, the U.S. could have pursued Mr. Aidid further, as his forces were significantly weakened, but President Clinton decided against it, resulting in three more decades of unrest in Somalia.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/02/opinion/bowden-mogadishu-black-hawk-down.html