Russia’s casualty rate in Ukraine has crossed a threshold more consequential than any territorial marker. For the first time in the war, Moscow is losing soldiers faster than it can replace them, as the conflict’s combined toll surpassed 2 million, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties in the war in Ukraine have exceeded 2 million with several plausible explanations: Russia’s attrition strategy, its failure to effectively conduct combined arms & joint warfare, its poor tactics and training, corruption, and low morale.… pic.twitter.com/ACbKQzJHIm
— CSIS (@CSIS) July 2, 2026
The CSIS report, published July 1 and authored by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe, estimates Russia has suffered up to 450,000 deaths and 1.4 million total casualties since its February 24, 2022 invasion. Ukraine has incurred between 125,000 and 150,000 fatalities and 525,000 to 625,000 total casualties. The combined toll is estimated to surpass that of the Battle of Stalingrad.
Moscow’s monthly casualty rate surpassed 30,000 in 2026, exceeding its recruitment rate of roughly 27,000 soldiers per month. “These rates are astounding,” Jones and McCabe said. “Russian fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II.”
The Russia-Ukraine casualty ratio rose to nearly 8 to 1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 for most of the conflict. CSIS attributed the shift to Ukraine’s expanding use of AI-enabled drones, which have extended the frontline kill zone. Over 90% of Russian casualties now result from drone strikes.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on July 1 that Russian forces seized just 11.7 square miles in June, compared to 185 square miles during the same month in 2025. Ukraine reported 39,490 Russian casualties last month, a 19-fold increase in losses per square mile of territory captured compared to June 2025.
MORE: Ukraine continued to intensify its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns in June 2026, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine.… https://t.co/QsKtMtn7yg pic.twitter.com/bnGrNJHPm0
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 2, 2026
“It remains unclear how long Russian forces will be able to sustain their current offensive tempo at their current loss rate,” ISW said.
