Recent political shifts and protests in Armenia over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan are causing unease in Moscow regarding the future of its military bases in Armenia and potentially in Tajikistan. The Kremlin fears these developments might set a precedent for other former Soviet states to reassess Russian military presence on their soil. This concern has been amplified as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Western-leaning administration considers demanding the withdrawal of Russian border guards and potentially closing the Russian military base at Gyumri.
Armenia’s drift from Moscow has accelerated since Pashinyan, who represents a generation less connected to Soviet traditions and the Russian language, came to power. The Kremlin’s response has been to support the domestic opposition and employ divide-and-rule tactics, not just in Armenia but across its perceived sphere of influence.
Moreover, similar sentiments are reportedly emerging in Tajikistan, where there’s growing disillusionment with Moscow’s treatment of its migrant workers and a reevaluation of the Russian military’s presence could be on the horizon. This situation presents a strategic dilemma for Russia, which has been primarily focused on its operations in Ukraine, potentially at the expense of its influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
While immediate closure of Russian bases in Armenia and Tajikistan seems unlikely due to existing long-term agreements, the mere discussion poses a substantial diplomatic challenge for Moscow. The Kremlin is likely to intensify its diplomatic and covert efforts to prevent any potential escalations that could further undermine its position in these regions.
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