Recent satellite images analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveal that over 250 Russian military and paramilitary facilities are within range of Ukraine’s U.S.-supplied ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). These targets include large military bases, communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters. This analysis challenges the assessment from a senior U.S. national security official who argued that Russian redeployment of military aircraft had diminished the effectiveness of potential Ukrainian strikes.
Ukraine received several shipments of ATACMS from the U.S. earlier this year, but restrictions limit their use to mainland Ukraine and annexed Crimea, excluding targets in mainland Russia. However, ISW argues that many significant Russian targets remain vulnerable despite Russia’s efforts to move military assets further from the Ukrainian border. Specifically, only 17 of the 250 identified targets are airfields, meaning that a substantial number of other critical facilities are still at risk.
The Biden administration’s reluctance to lift restrictions on ATACMS use in Russia is based on the belief that such strikes would be less effective, given that Moscow has redeployed 90% of its aircraft from bases near Ukraine. However, ISW’s report emphasizes that this assessment overlooks the broader array of Russian facilities that support ongoing military operations against Ukraine. “It would be extremely difficult or impossible [for Russia] to quickly redeploy assets” from these facilities, ISW noted.
NEW: Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian military targets within Russia’s rear are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities throughout the theater, and the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons would allow Ukrainian forces to… pic.twitter.com/nUhbKEzejl
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) August 25, 2024
While Ukrainian forces are limited in their use of Western-provided weapons, they have continued to demonstrate their capability to strike deep into Russian territory using domestically produced long-range drones and modified missiles. Recent Ukrainian strikes, such as one targeting a large ammunition depot in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast
