Summary: The IISS has detailed substantial equipment losses by Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, with estimates suggesting over 3,000 armored vehicles lost in the past year and close to 8,800 since February 2022.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the IISS has tracked mounting losses in Russian military equipment, with over 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles reported lost in the last year alone, and a total nearing 8,800 in the two years of conflict. The ongoing offensive on Avdiivka highlights the heavy equipment and personnel attrition faced by Russian forces, though gains have been made, particularly with an artillery advantage. The challenge of accurately tracking active military equipment for both sides is noted, with a reliance on a variety of sources including battlefield imagery and leaked data to estimate losses and reinforcements.
The IISS’s forthcoming publication, The Military Balance 2024, will offer a detailed assessment of these losses and the evolving inventories of both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Despite the attrition, Russia has managed to maintain its equipment levels through a combination of reactivating stored equipment and manufacturing some new units. Estimates suggest Russia has reintegrated over 1,000 main battle tanks (MBTs) and thousands of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armoured personnel carriers (APCs) from storage, alongside new production efforts.
Ukraine’s military inventory has also evolved, with near pre-war levels of MBTs and increased numbers of APCs and IFVs, supported by Western military aid. However, the pace of equipment supply has not fully met the operational demands of Ukrainian forces. The IISS analysis suggests Russia could continue to compensate for battlefield losses through its reserves and manufacturing capabilities for an additional 2-3 years, potentially extending the conflict’s duration.
Reports From Avdiivka
The four-month-long battle for Avdiivka has reached a critical juncture, with the Ukrainian garrison in the devastated city nearing an ammunition shortfall. This shortage has facilitated Russian forces’ incremental advances into the city, jeopardizing the Ukrainian garrison’s supply lines. Avdiivka’s fall marks Ukraine’s first significant territorial loss to Russia in almost a year, but the victory comes at a steep cost for Russia, which has expended nearly an entire mechanized division’s worth of tanks to gain a few square miles of shattered urban landscape.
Open-source analysis indicates that since the onset of the assault on Avdiivka in early October, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies have suffered the loss of 222 tanks, as cataloged below. These losses predominantly involve T-72s and T-80s, with a few advanced T-90s among them. In stark contrast, Ukrainian forces in and around Avdiivka have lost just 20 tanks.
#Avdiivka offensive equipment loss numbers as of 09 February 2024.
In summary: 655 RU losses vs. 50 UA losses
Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail: https://t.co/GHawlVOd2T pic.twitter.com/AjNQr7RQGH
— Naalsio (@naalsio26) February 10, 2024
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