The protracted battle for Avdiivka, a town in eastern Ukraine, has resulted in a staggering number of casualties for Russian forces, possibly surpassing the fatalities experienced during the entire 10-year Soviet-Afghan war. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted the severe toll on Russian military personnel as they endeavored to capture Avdiivka, a campaign that began in October and concluded with Russian control earlier this month.
According to Ukrainian military estimates, the battle for Avdiivka resulted in up to 47,000 Russian soldiers either killed or injured. This figure starkly contrasts with the up to 25,000 Soviet soldiers believed to have died over the course of the Soviet-Afghan war. Russian opposition media outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated that between 66,000 to 88,000 Russian personnel have died in the conflict in Ukraine from February 2022 to December 2023. Their analysis, based on confirmed Russian deaths, inheritance cases, and mortality data, suggests that approximately 83,000 Russian military personnel may have perished since the onset of the full-scale invasion. These estimates align with US intelligence assessments, which reported 315,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine, considering a standard ratio of three wounded for every fatality.
Despite these significant losses, Russian forces continue their offensive operations in Ukraine, sustained by mobilization efforts that generate new forces at a rate roughly equivalent to current Russian losses. This approach allows Russian forces to reinforce attacking units and conduct operational-level rotations regularly. However, the sustainability of such operations, especially at a higher tempo that could lead to even greater losses, remains uncertain.
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