Tensions between China and the Philippines over contested territories in the South China Sea have intensified, particularly concerning the Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. Both shoals lie within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), but China asserts its claim over these areas, leading to ongoing confrontations.
Recent developments have brought the dispute back into the spotlight. The Philippines and China had reached a “provisional agreement” in July 2024 to avoid confrontations during resupply missions to Filipino troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines grounded a navy vessel in 1999 to assert its maritime claims. However, this arrangement may be subject to review, according to Philippine officials, as tensions continue to rise.
The situation became more volatile when Chinese aircraft reportedly dropped flares in the path of a Philippine military aircraft over Scarborough Shoal, reigniting fears of an escalation. The Philippine Navy condemned the actions as “coercive, aggressive, and deceptive,” while China maintained that its military acted professionally and within its rights.
In a related development, Chinese academic Wu Shicun proposed a controversial three-point plan aimed at resolving the conflict. Wu’s proposal includes a diplomatic timeline for the Philippines to withdraw from Second Thomas Shoal, a move that has raised concerns among regional players and may further escalate tensions rather than resolve them.
Scarborough Shoal, located about 120 nautical miles west of the Philippines’ largest island, Luzon, has been a flashpoint in the South China Sea for over a decade. Despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of the Philippines, which invalidated China’s sweeping claims over the South China Sea, Beijing has continued to its attempt to assert control over the area.
The ongoing dispute involves not just China and the Philippines, but also other Southeast Asian nations with overlapping claims in the South China Sea. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of external powers, such as the United States, which has expressed support for the Philippines and criticized China’s aggressive actions in the region.
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