U.S. intelligence agencies have raised concerns that Russia may respond with increased force, including potential lethal attacks on U.S. and European military assets, if Ukraine is granted permission to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for strikes deep into Russian territory, according to a report by The New York Times.
The intelligence warning suggests that Russia’s potential retaliation could involve a range of covert and overt actions. These actions might include covert arson and sabotage operations targeting European infrastructure, as well as potentially lethal attacks on military bases operated by the U.S. and its allies.
U.S. officials indicated that the intelligence community’s assessment also downplays the strategic impact that these long-range missiles might have on the war effort, given Ukraine’s limited supply and uncertainty over the provision of additional missiles from Western nations. The missiles in question have a range of up to 190 miles (300 kilometers), making it possible for Ukraine to target Russian military installations beyond the front lines. However, Russia is expected to respond by relocating key military assets, such as ammunition depots and command posts, beyond the reach of these missiles.
The intelligence warning comes amid heightened tensions following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement of plans to revise Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine. According to The New York Times, Putin indicated that Moscow would consider any attack by a non-nuclear country, if supported by a nuclear power, as a joint attack by both. This proposed change serves as a direct message to the West and could influence how Russia responds to any perceived threat or escalation in Ukraine.
Putin has made several “bellicose” statements in recent weeks, warning that the West risks provoking a larger conflict by allowing Ukraine to use longer-range weapons to strike targets within Russian territory. These statements have heightened concerns among some of President Joe Biden’s senior advisers, who agree with intelligence assessments that the risk of Russian retaliation is significant if Ukraine is granted the capability to strike deeper into Russian territory.
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