The Islamist militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly linked to Al Qaeda, launched a surprise offensive in late November 2024, capturing Aleppo and over 18 nearby villages. This week, the rebels seized Hama following a chaotic retreat of Syrian regime troops toward Homs. Opposition forces are now advancing rapidly through central Syria, threatening to overrun Homs—a critical gateway to Damascus, and the last supply route linking Damascus to the Syrian coast.
Homs control map as of today. Rebels are at the gates of Homs city.
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— Liveuamap MiddleEast (@lummideast) December 6, 2024
Simultaneously, on Syria’s southern border with Jordan, local residents and Druze militias have risen against Assad’s forces, further eroding regime control. A coalition of rebel groups, calling itself the Southern Operations Room, has seized the al-Kam warehouses—the largest weapons depots in southern Syria—located east of Muhajjah in Daraa province. The coalition has also taken full control of the city of Daraa and dozens of surrounding towns, villages, and military facilities. In a statement, the Southern Operations Room declared: “Our destination is Damascus.”
#Syria: regime forces are leaving the city of #Daraa peacefully, being send off by celebrating locals as the rebels take over.
Unbelievable scenes actually. pic.twitter.com/sNmBN4ugDI
— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 6, 2024
The rapid advance has prompted growing regional concerns. According to The Wall Street Journal, both Egyptian and Jordanian officials have urged President Assad to leave the country and establish a government-in-exile. Reports indicate Assad’s wife and children have already fled Damascus for Moscow, while his brother-in-law sought refuge in the United Arab Emirates. Assad has reportedly appealed to Turkey for intervention to halt the rebel offensive and has requested intelligence support and weapons from Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and the UAE, all of which have been refused.
Iraq’s Shia factions, including major Iranian-backed armed groups, have also opted against sending reinforcements to Syria. Officials told Middle East Eye that Iraqi leaders are deeply concerned about the security implications of the Syrian collapse. Baghdad fears a repeat of the 2014 crisis when fighters from the Islamic State crossed into Iraq from Syria, leading to mass violence and displacement. Iraqi forces reportedly remain on high alert, and are monitoring Syria’s deteriorating security situation.
According to The New York Times, three Iranian officials have confirmed that Iran has begun evacuating senior military leaders and personnel from Syria in anticipation of the Assad regime’s imminent collapse. Top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force have reportedly left for refuge in Lebanon and Iraq. Additionally, Iranian military personnel, diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians began evacuating on Friday under orders from the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and IRGC leadership.
An Iranian militia films the Sayyida Ruqayya shrine in Damascus, saying:
“All Iranians have left Syria. The Syrian regime was sold in a deal. This is the last video I’ll take of the shrine,” as he cries, fearing its destruction.pic.twitter.com/RwHMFZUGfl
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024
In response to the crisis, Russia has begun withdrawing mobile air-defense systems and repositioning troops to defend strategic locations, including the Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia and the Tartus naval facility. Moscow has allegedly redeployed personnel from its Africa Corps—a successor to the Wagner Group’s African operations—to bolster Assad’s faltering defenses. Arab-speaking Russian interpreters have reportedly been dispatched to frontline positions in Homs to coordinate with Syrian government forces, according to the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation.
However, according to Bloomberg, sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed that Moscow has no plans to “save Assad as long as Syrian troops do not put up a fight,” expressing frustration over the Syrian Armed Forces’ swift collapse in Aleppo and Homs without significant resistance.
The fall of Assad’s regime would have far-reaching consequences for Russia’s regional and global strategy. Tartus, Russia’s only formal overseas naval base, is vital for Moscow’s power projection in the Mediterranean and Red Sea. Furthermore, Syria serves as a logistical hub for Russian operations in Africa. A collapse in Syria could disrupt Russian supply routes, complicating its Africa Corps operations and diminishing its ability to counter NATO’s presence in the region.
