Russian forces are experiencing high levels of losses in Ukraine that may not be sustainable in the long term, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In its report published on Saturday, ISW said that since October 2023, Russia has lost the equivalent of five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region alone. Despite Russia’s efforts to prioritize military equipment in key areas, their reliance on Soviet-era vehicles and limited production of replacements raises concerns about how long they can maintain this level of loss.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently said Russia is losing over 1,200 troops daily, amounting to about 36,000 per month.
The ISW report suggests that the Russian military is struggling to find enough recruits to replace these casualties. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the shortage of workers and Russia’s reliance on migrant labor during a speech last Thursday. There are also reports that migrants are being pressured to join the military.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers, known as “Milbloggers,” have openly criticized the high casualty rates. A former Russian instructor recently called Russia’s current tactics—using small, under-prepared assault groups—“improperly organized” and said they are causing unnecessarily high casualties without major battlefield gains. Milbloggers have also reported incidents of commanders sending drone operators and specialists on dangerous assault missions as punishment, resulting in additional deaths.
The ISW report indicates that this growing frustration among pro-war voices in Russia could increase pressure on the Kremlin to address these issues.
