Russia has reduced its military presence near the Finnish border, moving the vast majority of its ground forces to support the war in Ukraine, according to Finnish public broadcaster Yle. This redeployment contradicts Moscow’s earlier threats to bolster its border defenses in response to Finland joining NATO.
Finnish military intelligence sources reported that approximately 80% of the equipment and soldiers from bases near Finland have been transferred to Ukraine. Despite threats of increased military presence, these bases are now notably empty. The source noted that this shift is not isolated to the Finnish border but is observed across various Russian regions, with Moscow Oblast being an exception.
Satellite imagery reviewed by Yle corroborates these findings. For instance, a military base near Petrozavodsk, roughly 200 kilometers from the Finnish border, showed a significant reduction in units and equipment from June 2023 to May 2024. New facilities, likely for servicing war-damaged equipment or housing new conscripts, have appeared at these bases.
While the Russian Ground Forces have seen substantial redeployments, the Air Force, Navy, and air defenses remain relatively staffed. The fluctuation in the number of soldiers at these bases is attributed to the induction of new conscripts, but contract soldiers have largely been dispatched to Ukraine.
This redeployment comes amid heavy losses suffered by Russian professional contractors in Ukraine, leading to partial mobilization efforts to replenish ranks. Finnish intelligence estimates that it may take Russia three to five years to recover from these losses.
The strategic shift underscores the heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, particularly after Finland’s accession to NATO in April 2023, which extended the NATO-Russian border by approximately 1,340 kilometers.Â
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