Reshaping Power Dynamics: The Reevaluation of Hybrid Warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

Russian hybrid warfare strategy, often seen as a unique and effective approach to global conflict, is under question in the context of the 2022 escalation in Ukraine. With substantial military and economic support from the United States and its allies, Ukraine has posed a formidable challenge to Russia’s strategy, resulting in a shift towards more conventional warfare. 

Key Points: 

1. Since 2014, Russia has seemingly excelled in hybrid warfare, a strategy that combines conventional warfare, irregular tactics, and influence campaigns. However, its success was largely dependent on the specific vulnerabilities of the targeted regions, like Crimea and Syria, and not solely on its strategic prowess.

2. The events of 2022 challenge this perceived mastery of hybrid warfare by Russia. The United States and a coalition of over 40 countries have effectively countered Russian actions by supplying military and economic aid to Ukraine, implementing sanctions, and dismantling Russian intelligence networks.

3. The current conflict in Ukraine is providing insights into modern geopolitical rivalry between two near-peer adversaries. This situation has led to a reevaluation of Russia’s hybrid strategy as they lean more towards conventional warfare, while the United States’ response reflects its focus on great-power competition.

4. Despite the setbacks, Russia still retains some disruptive capabilities. It has sought to manipulate the media and evade sanctions, but these efforts have been largely insufficient to overcome its initial strategic missteps in Ukraine.

5. The United States, on the other hand, has emerged stronger from the conflict. Declassifying intelligence, forming a pre-emptive coalition, and expanding NATO have not only degraded Russia’s future competitive abilities but have also allowed the U.S. to test and evolve its strategies for great-power competition.

Read the full analysis at: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2023/6/7/two-can-play-that-game-russia-the-united-states-and-the-return-of-great-power-competition