The Israeli intelligence community has issued a new assessment indicating that Iran is poised to launch a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for the recent assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. According to unnamed sources quoted by Axios, the attack could occur within days, marking a significant shift from previous evaluations that suggested international pressure was preventing Iran from taking immediate action.
The assassination, widely attributed to Israeli operatives, has intensified tensions in the region. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly convinced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to delay the expected retaliation, with the goal of postponing any military response until after the approval of the new Iranian government by the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Iran’s parliament.
The United States has reportedly opened a direct line of communication with Tehran, urging Iran to delay any retaliatory actions by at least two weeks. In exchange, the U.S. proposed mechanisms to address security concerns and prevent further strikes.
The Axios sources indicated that Khamenei has insisted that any retaliation must target Israel directly, rather than Israeli intelligence elements in neighboring countries. However, there remains uncertainty about the Supreme Leader’s final decision, with no guarantees on the timing or nature of Iran’s response.
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