Despite appearances of stability, Iraq is experiencing a dangerous political upheaval with Iran’s allies gaining unprecedented control over Iraq’s government and economy. This shift towards Iran-aligned power, marked by manipulation of the political system and significant state looting, is raising concerns of a potential long-term destabilization and could eventually draw in the United States for intervention. 

Key Points: 

1. Iran’s allies, particularly through the Coordination Framework, have successfully seized control of Iraq’s parliament, judiciary, and executive branch, potentially destabilizing the nation’s political structure and utilizing the state’s resources for their own interests.

2. The Coordination Framework’s dominance within Iraq is unprecedented in the country’s post-2003 history, extending to virtually all branches of the government. Their unchecked authority parallels the autocratic regime of Saddam Hussein, with true power lying with Iran-linked warlords.

3. The Iran-backed group has effectively rigged the political system in its favor, consolidating their power over key state institutions and introducing suppressive digital content regulations that potentially violate the Iraqi constitution.

4. A significant element of this takeover involves looting state resources. Iran-backed groups have established a state company, the Muhandis General Company, that has unprecedented control over Iraqi assets and operates without traditional oversight.

5. The Coordination Framework’s influence also extends to fiscal policy. They have proposed the largest budget in Iraq’s history, a move criticized by the United States, the IMF, and the World Bank for its unsustainable spending and for potentially contributing to future instability.

Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iraq-quietly-falling-apart