Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has directed Iranian military officials to prepare a retaliatory strike against Israel following Israeli airstrikes on October 26 that targeted Iran’s air defense infrastructure, according to a report Thursday in The New York Times. The NYT, citing officials familiar with Iranian deliberations, reported that Khamenei instructed his Supreme National Security Council on Monday to devise plans for a military response, after receiving an assessment of damage from Israeli attacks that reportedly killed four Iranian soldiers.
Iranian officials indicated that the timing of any response would be influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. CNN sources suggested an Iranian reprisal could come before the election, while others reported by The New York Times hinted Tehran might delay action to avoid boosting former President Donald Trump’s campaign by escalating tensions. Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, Khamenei’s chief of staff, told the al-Mayadeen network Thursday that Iranian retaliation is “certain,” warning it would be “strong” and aimed at making Israel “regret” the attack.
Iran’s plans appear to involve long-range capabilities, with Israeli intelligence suggesting that an attack could originate from Iraqi territory, Axios reported. Israeli sources stated that Iran may be preparing for an assault involving numerous drones and ballistic missiles, likely launched from Iraq by Iran-aligned militias. ‘Iran could quickly execute these preparations if it chooses to act before the election,’ a U.S. official told Axios, while clarifying that it remains unclear if the decision to strike has been made.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander General Hossein Salami also issued a public warning Thursday, stating Israel would face an “unimaginable” response. He characterized Israel’s October 26 airstrikes as a “mistake” and said Iran’s retaliation would differ from what “Israel might expect.” Tasnim News Agency quoted Golpayegani’s remarks that Iran’s air defenses had successfully “prevented entry of the Zionist regime fighters” and minimized damage during the attack.
During a Speech recently by Major General Hossein Salami, the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to Iranian Military and Political Leaders, he stated, “Iran will deliver an Unimaginable Response to Israel. Israelis think they can alter History by… pic.twitter.com/iUTlJxNwvG
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 31, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s actions during a military event Thursday, describing the strikes as targeting Iran’s “soft underbelly” and claiming they have expanded Israel’s freedom to operate within Iran. “Israel has greater freedom of action in Iran today than ever before,” Netanyahu said, adding that the strikes removed immediate threats and degraded Iran’s air defense and missile production abilities.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that more than 100 aircraft participated in the October 19 operations against Iran, targeting its air defense systems and missile manufacturing sites.
AP appear to have the full size images here. https://t.co/rm29pm6acW pic.twitter.com/6fbicLjuwe
— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) October 27, 2024
Meanwhile, Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have signaled increased mobilization. Falih Al-Fayyadh, PMF Chairman, was seen in Tehran meeting with IRGC Quds Force leader Brigadier General Esmail Qaani.
Interesting presence of the #Iraq PMF Chairman Falih Al-Fayyadh with #IRGCterrorists-QF Commander Esmail Ghaani today at a memorial in #Iran for #Hezbollah‘s Hashem Safieddine amid the Axios report that Iran may retaliate against #Israel through Iraq. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/4RqvT4jsIM
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) October 31, 2024
To prepare for further operations, Israel has established specialized divisions in its Intelligence Directorate and Air Force. These new units are dedicated to long-range operations targeting Iran, the IDF stated Thursday, noting that repeated exercises have been conducted since October in anticipation of extended operations.
