The $4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile that has fueled long-standing tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan is nearly complete, with the Ethiopian government projecting full operation by 2025. While Ethiopia views GERD as crucial for its development, Egypt and Sudan fear the dam will severely impact their access to vital Nile water resources.
The construction of GERD has exacerbated geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly among Nile Basin states. Last Sunday, the newly formed Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) took over responsibility for managing the river’s resources under the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). The agreement aims to ensure equitable use of the Nile’s waters but has been rejected by Egypt and Sudan. The two downstream countries argue that the CFA undermines their historical water rights, established through colonial-era agreements in 1929 and 1959, which granted Egypt significant control over the river’s flow.
Egyptian Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam recently called on the Nile Basin states to reconsider the CFA, warning that Egypt “will not concede even a single cubic meter of Nile water.” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has reiterated that the Nile is Egypt’s primary water source, providing over 98% of its water needs. Egypt has long demanded a legally binding agreement with Ethiopia on the filling and operation of GERD to safeguard its water supply, but negotiations have so far been unsuccessful.
Ethiopia, meanwhile, insists the dam will not harm downstream nations and argues that it is necessary for its development, including plans to become a major energy exporter in Africa. Ethiopian officials have also expressed frustration with what they see as Egypt’s dominance over Nile waters, a sentiment echoed by other upstream countries, such as Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda, which have signed the CFA.
The Nile Basin Initiative which preceded the NRBC, failed to resolve the GERD dispute over the past decade. Now, with GERD nearly completed, the NRBC faces the difficult task of negotiating an agreement among all Nile Basin countries within six months. The situation is further complicated by broader geopolitical dynamics, including Ethiopia’s aspirations to establish a naval presence in the Red Sea and growing tensions in Somalia, where Egypt and Ethiopia are backing opposing sides in the country’s internal conflicts.
The GERD controversy has also heightened regional competition beyond the immediate Nile Basin states. Egypt has increasingly aligned with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia’s influence, while Ethiopia has sought new alliances, including an agreement with Somaliland.
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