A new unclassified report from the Defense Intelligence Agency outlines an expanding array of missile threats to the U.S. homeland over the next decade, supporting efforts to develop a comprehensive missile defense initiative known as “Golden Dome.”
Titled “Golden Dome for America: Current and Future Missile Threats to the U.S. Homeland”, the assessment profiles expected adversary developments in six key missile categories: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), hypersonic weapons, land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), and fractional orbital bombardment systems (FOBS) .
China is forecasted to expand its ICBM inventory from 400 to 700 by 2035. Russia’s total may grow from 350 to 400, while North Korea could reach 50 ICBMs.
Iran, currently without ICBMs, may field up to 60 by adapting space launch vehicles.
SLBM threats remain broad. Russia maintains a maximum loadout of 192 submarine-launched missiles, unchanged through 2035.
China’s SLBM loadout is projected to rise from 72 to at least 132. The report notes that no U.S. region is beyond reach of these missile systems.
Hypersonic systems pose an evolving challenge. China could reportedly grow its arsenal of boosted hypersonic weapons, including aeroballistic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), from 600 to 4,000 systems by 2035.
Russia’s inventory is projected to rise from 200–300 to 1,000. China may have already deployed conventional HGVs capable of reaching Alaska.
Russia can currently target much of the U.S. with cruise missiles launched from air, sea, and land platforms. China is developing similar capabilities against Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast. Both countries are expected to expand their LACM inventories to 5,000 each, up from Russia’s 300–600 and China’s 1,000 today.
FOBS, a newer category of concern, can place payloads in low orbit before reentry, potentially bypassing early-warning systems by traveling over the South Pole.
While neither China nor Russia currently fields FOBS, the DIA projects China could field 60 and Russia fewer than 12 by 2035. China’s 2021 test of such a system was described by then-Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley as “very concerning.”
The Golden Dome initiative, ordered by President Donald Trump in January 2025, aims to integrate current and emerging technologies into a layered national missile defense. The directive tasked the Department of Defense with identifying gaps in existing systems and accelerating development efforts.
Key programs include the Missile Defense Agency’s Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS), which has completed initial test launches.
HBTSS is designed to detect and track hypersonic threats from space and is now being integrated into a broader satellite architecture alongside the U.S. Space Force and Space Development Agency.
The administration has proposed a $25 billion initial allocation for Golden Dome in its fiscal year 2026 budget. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cost of the space-based interceptor segment alone could range from $161 billion to $542 billion over 20 years, depending on system scope and launch requirements.
