Tropical Depression Two formed off the west coast of Florida on Sunday, and the only Defense Department unit that still flies into tropical systems was sent to investigate it. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system on Sunday morning after it developed a defined center of circulation, upgrading it from the disturbance previously tracked as Invest 91L.
The NHC issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border.
As of the 4 p.m. CDT advisory, the depression was nearly stationary about 190 miles south-southeast of Panama City, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1,010 millibars.
4p CDT Sunday – Here are the Key Messages for Tropical Depression Two. The full advisory is at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/TBZjX3BWVu
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 19, 2026
Forecasters expect it to strengthen into a tropical storm Sunday night or Monday, which would make it Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 season.
The reconnaissance data feeding those forecasts comes from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the Air Force Reserve unit based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Known as the Hurricane Hunters, the squadron flies 10 WC-130J Super Hercules aircraft directly into storms to measure wind speed and central pressure, data the NHC credits with improving track forecasts by roughly 20%. It is the only military unit in the world flying weather reconnaissance on a routine basis.
AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters launch first flight into Tropical Depression Two to gather vital weather data, which is sent to the @NHC_Atlantic to assist in forecast models. Stay #WeatherReady and pay attention to local weather. pic.twitter.com/vnQ4sSJTuH
— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) July 19, 2026
The squadron carries that load with thin margins. A 2024 report in Air & Space Forces Magazine found the 53rd WRS already declining some taskings and warned that its current resources are insufficient to fully support simultaneous peak-season National Hurricane Operations Plan demands.
The NHC forecast 2 to 4 inches of rain, with local totals near 8 inches, from western Florida through Louisiana, and warned that residents in Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas should monitor the system as additional watches may follow.
