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Friday, December 9, 2022

What’s Behind Russia’s New Deployment of Troops to Belarus? | Carnegie

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On October 15, Russian personnel, supplies, and MIG-31 fighter aircraft started to arrive in Belarus. According to the Belarusian Defense Ministry, up to 9,000 Russian forces could arrive.

On October 10, Lukashenko declared that he and Putin had chosen to send a regional force to Belarus that included soldiers from both of their nations. according to Lukashenko, the deployment was made In reaction to NATO provocations near the border, the establishment of sabotage groups manned by Belarusian émigrés, and Ukrainian plans to attack Belarus. A united Russian-Belarusian attack on Ukraine from the north is unlikely in the near future, given the military balance and the political difficulties confronting Lukashenko in the event that Belarus fully enters the conflict. However, given what the world discovered in February—that Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin live their own universe, with its own hazards and opportunities—rational analysis falls short of providing complete reassurance.

Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88249



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