The draft, as many have noted, violated an unwritten social agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the populace, which called for political indifference in exchange for the provision of stable living conditions and, if not high, at least passable living standards. To block the Ukrainian counteroffensive, poorly trained soldiers were deployed to the front lines as cannon fodder, and soon their bodies will start to return to their homes, infuriating the people. This might cause dissatisfaction among the populace, which would call for additional repression, along with the economic effects of the sanctions. Pure force would not be enough to keep the Kremlin in power for very long. Putin might be tempted to employ a tactical nuclear bomb or some other highly escalatory alternative to achieve military success, which would likely deprive him of his unreliable allies throughout the world. The Russian elite would either remove him out of fear for their own lives or bury the entire planet with him.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, declared a “partial” mobilization in Russia in late September as he pushed through the annexation of four seized districts in southeast Ukraine following phony referendums.