Pro-Russian Forces Have Abandoned Their Objective to Encircle Ukrainian Troops.
According to the British Defense Ministry, the Russian military has lately removed or changed several field commanders. The Russian army has changed its combat objectives and continues to concentrate on the eastern Donbas area of Ukraine. The Russian troops hold a numerical and firepower advantage, but they respond to Ukrainian tactics. Liam Collins, a former U.S. Special Forces colonel, provides RFE/RL with combat predictions.
According to an analysis, Russian troops have likely abandoned their plan to encircle Ukrainian soldiers from Izyum in the north to Donetsk in the south. According to commentators, they would instead concentrate their eastern attack on conquering the region of Luhansk. It is difficult to see Russia seizing the whole province; where would that lead? Ultimately, you must reach some negotiated arrangement, and Ukraine is unwilling to give further land. Currently, there is no viable agreement between the two states.
From Russia’s standpoint, they are ready to dial down what [they] want, but it is not easy to see how this can be sustainable for either side over the long term. Even if they lost their ability, I think they would revert to guerilla tactics. Collins asserts that before the outbreak of hostilities, Ukraine received few military systems from the West. He argues that Ukraine has proved its capability, and there is less reluctance to send them over. Like Russia, he claims that Ukraine focuses on a smaller and smaller area.
Collins says that it will take months or years for Russia to reach that degree of weariness. IKU Ukraine can be prosperous, Collins says, but there’s still much fighting, and Russia has superior numerical forces. Keep your attention to how things are changing on the ground, rather than just Moscow’s rhetoric. You need to look over a week or a multi-week period at the real successes that Russia is having — or the lack of wins.
Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-military-performance-analysis/31858554.html
