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Saturday, December 10, 2022

IntelBrief: Afghanistan in a State of ‘Durable Disorder’ Under the Taliban Government | The Soufan Center

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to have drawn attention from all over the world, but Afghanistan remains in a state of “durable disorder” under the Taliban, limping along without entirely collapsing or stabilizing. 

Afghanistan’s immediate future appears bleak, and there is little hope that the Taliban will be able to mend a nation that appears to be fundamentally damaged as a result of four decades of turmoil, war, and political upheaval. The Islamic State Khorasan campaign, which has constantly struck sectarian targets to undermine the Taliban and destabilize the nation, has shown that the Taliban in Afghanistan are unable to control it. The Taliban have excelled in domestic repression, restricting the rights of women and girls, putting an end to protests, and intimidating protesters who are courageous enough to voice their concerns about the state of the nation. This summer, the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan marked its one-year anniversary without much ceremony. The unlawful Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to have drawn attention from all across the world, while Afghanistan remains in a state of “durable chaos” under the Taliban, limping along without entirely collapsing or stabilizing. Since Ayman al-passing, Zawahiri’s Al-Qaeda has been relatively quiet, but there are still grave worries that it would use Afghanistan to revive its network throughout South Asia. According to reports, Russia is enlisting Afghan fighters to fight alongside its troops in Ukraine. The Taliban have failed to control the ISK insurgency within Afghanistan. ISK is unlikely to succeed in toppling the Taliban, but they are also unlikely to eradicate their Islamist opponents. Additionally, they are held accountable for kidnappings, wrongful detentions, and extrajudicial killings. Afghanistan may be on the verge of another political and security crisis if the Taliban continue to rule with an iron fist.



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